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Continuation Part 10: Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito

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And the knife, with 6 days of interval during which 105 samples were analyzed by the same machine and no MK trace found (this is the Novelli report)?

So you say.

The fact of the matter is that the prior extraction box (260 vs. 261) contained MK DNA, so there is no gap there.

Also, there is no evidence whatsoever that the Qubit Flourometer was used between November 6, when several MK samples were run through, and November 13, when Rep. 36 was quantified.

There do appear to be a series of amplifications that were run during the period November 7 to November 12, but no one knows what they are or what they show, so this doesn't prove anything. For all we know, they were all MK samples. Also, there are not "105" of them, but rather, 54 (Nos. 695 through 748). So, we have some questionable exaggeration going on here.

The electrophoresis run in which 36b was processed is a re-run: "365bis", and the results of the original run have never been disclosed. Why?
 
I agree, a federal judge and Department of Justice hands are tied by the scope of US\Italy extradition treaty. If it happens, the Department of State will make a political decisions based on say, a natural grassroots campaign that creates a ground swell of US public opinion against extradition.

A judgment that Italy violated Amanda Knox's human rights will be a game-changer.
 
But this is a myth of the innocentisti. Vecchiotti and Conti are not "independent" experts, they are judge appointed experts. Only the judge is independent. The judge is supposed to be neutral but only until he judges. After he judges he takes a side, from that moment he is considering biased. But Hellmann Zanetti not only have taken a side, they have also been completely discredited. The SC destroyed them completely, challenged Vecchiotti's "intellectual honesty" and basically pointed her making up document content, and all of Hellmann's trial conduct and decisions were annulled (except part of the calunnia finding). Then we had also external source claiming that the defence was having contacts with Vecchiotti and Conti before the publishing of their report (through experts Hampikiam and Budowle). Btw Vecchiotti has a dubious reputation herself also due to other cases.
How can this expert be anyhow considers "neutral"? This is really unduly naive.

Who really cares about any of this. The crime scene video is like a comedy act. Stefanoni didn't amplify twice (or more times). Stefanoni is hiding her lab records. Every DNA expert who has ever looked at this thing says that the lab work is crap (except for say-anything-for-a-buck Novelli).
 
Huh? The Noye case is in no way remotely analogous.

I'll try to explain more slowly why there's irony and contradiction in the Knox/Sollecito trial situation: if Hellmann's court was so utterly illegitimate and incompetent (and possibly, according to some, corrupt!), then how could Hellmann possibly have been appointed to the case in the first place? Either his superiors did not know he was incompetent - in which case his superiors are also incompetent for not knowing the incompetence of a judge whom they were appointing to a high-profile major murder appeal trial. Or his superiors were themselves corrupt - which implies corruption at the heart of the Italian judiciary.

In Noye's case, there were quite possibly corrupt police officers (now where else have I come across that not-so-uncommon phenomenon......?), but the police are not the judiciary. Are you suggesting that the court itself in Noye's first trial (when he was acquitted of the murder of the undercover officer) was incompetent or corrupt? Because if you are, then that's a whole different ball game. And once Noye was identified as the owner and driver of the Range Rover involved in the road range killing, the police had no choice but to pursue him. Besides which, the murder squad leading the hunt for Noye were a totally separate set of individuals from the Flying Squad (or similar) officers who were possibly corrupted by Noye regarding the Brinks Mat robbery.


I suggest either more appropriate analogies, or perhaps not attempting to use them at all :)

:)

Well, I tried. I cant dumb it down any more.

It appears the concept of analogies must be added to the ever growing list of mysterious things !
 
I do understand that Prof. Potenza was present for the tests, but that doesn't matter much compared to getting the results of those tests.

Whoa Nelly.

All I know about Potenza's reports is as follows:

1) We have two reports, the second of which stops at, if I recall correctly, Rep. 163 (the bra clasp is 165).

2) Even if he was there for the "testing" of 165, it seems likely that he was not there for the "re-run" plate that yielded the "incriminating" 165b profile, because that plate was probably run about a week after the main testing for this batch--there's a good chance that it was done illegally.

3) Potenza's reports don't discuss quantification, and he seems unaware of the use of the Qubit Flourometer. Was there some part of the analyses that were done when Potentza wasn't there, i.e., extraction and quantification? he doesn't seem aware of the obvious malfunctioning of the q-PCR machine.

4) Was Potenza present for the complete amplification/electrophoresis process in all cases? This process takes hours, and in some cases may have occurred over night.

5) Potenza doesn't seem aware of re-runs, although these were done. Why? Were the defendants advised of these re-runs? Why weren't all of the records of the re-runs produced?

6) Why are all of the amplification dates suppressed? Would this show illegal testing outside of the notice provided to the defendants?

7) Potenza certainly was not present for the testing of the first batch (cat's blood/sex assault) samples, and does not appear to have been apprised of the testing of the Rudy Guede items. Some of the testing in the first batch was done after the arrests occurred, and therefore were possibly illegal. It seems clear that the defendants were intentionally excluded from the Rudy Guede testing, even though it obviously related to the case, so again, this was probably illegal.
 
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But this is a myth of the innocentisti. Vecchiotti and Conti are not "independent" experts, they are judge appointed experts. Only the judge is independent. The judge is supposed to be neutral but only until he judges. After he judges he takes a side, from that moment he is considering biased.
No offense Mach, but this is total nonsense. V&C were independent court appointed experts. They had no dog in the hunt.They could have cared less one way or the other in the outcome of their analysis. Their interest was only in the fair application of the science and "getting it right".

But Hellmann Zanetti not only have taken a side, they have also been completely discredited. The SC destroyed them completely, challenged Vecchiotti's "intellectual honesty" and basically pointed her making up document content, and all of Hellmann's trial conduct and decisions were annulled (except part of the calunnia finding). Then we had also external source claiming that the defence was having contacts with Vecchiotti and Conti before the publishing of their report (through experts Hampikiam and Budowle). Btw Vecchiotti has a dubious reputation herself also due to other cases.
How can this expert be anyhow considers "neutral"? This is really unduly naive.

From what I can see Mach, it is not Hellmann and Zanetti that are discredited but your court system or at least the SC judges in this case. They didn't like the outcome in this case or the use of independent experts as that puts a monkey wrench in your entire system.
 
Machiavelli said:
No, it's the job of the prosecution to produce evidence that is certain. Evidence that has been handled in a way that makes contamination as close to impossible as possible. The safeguards in the labs such as cleaning protocol and positive pressure hoods are required. They are required precisely to eliminate the possibility of contamination in vast, vast majority of tests.

If the safeguards were not present, it would be very difficult to show probable contamination often - if that were not true the more stringent protocols wouldn't be necessary.

But this is just false. And this is not a jury based adversarial system in which the evidence can be preemptively selected by a judge. The duty of the prosecution is not at all to bring findings that have an absolute certain or certified meaning, it is instead to just bring facts that are meaningful on a probabilistic level. You can well reach a certain conclusion without any "smoking gun" and with not a single element that is absolutely certain. There is no need of absolute certainty thresholds or certifications whatsoever for evidence in a trial.

Italy allegedly has an adversarial system, but clearly it isn't fully accepted. The issue is more with the "jury" system. Here and elsewhere where the judge MUST rule on evidence before the "deciders" enter the juror room. Here the judge eliminates evidence that just being presented would impact the deciders even if the defense were to be able to attack it. An example would be DNA that wasn't handled to accepted protocol standards. This has nothing to do with any gun smoking or not.

Things that don't rise to accepted levels are not facts. It is a fact that Stef claimed she found the DNA but her methods and the handling of the items leaves that claim short of a fact.

In the Italian system the judge does decide what will be presented to the other judges in court. Massei decided that Cristian T wouldn't be allowed to testify. Not every "fact" a prosecutor wants to present MUST be allowed. Certainly the court didn't allow many defense requests.

Well I for one thing the box was handled by cops that were in the cottage IIRC. I could get a cite but no one would care

But you can't be serious calling tho a "connection with MK". Tertiary transfer from having breathed the air inside a house (not the room). What are the records in science of a transfer under these condition? What are the odds? It' ridiculous. You could start talking of probability approaching the area of reasonable probability if Gubbiotti was wearing a jacket completely splashed with Meredith's blood. Btw Gubbiotti did not leave his alleged contaminating MK's DNA on any other item he handled from Sollecito's apartment; actually not even his own DNA is found on the knife, nor that of other forensics, not even on any other item collects in Sollecito's apartment.

Breathing the air, please. Exactly what did the policeman that placed the knife in the calendar box do at the cottage? What did the cop that spied the knife do at the cottage? The amount of alleged DNA on the knife clearly could get there by secondary, tertiary or even through more transfers. Do you think DNA just vaporizes after a secondary transfer?

Raf's DNA was on the door, someone in the 6 weeks between CSI visits got his DNA from door and then touched the bra clasp as they moved thing around in MK's room. MK's DNA wasn't on the knife at all but if it had been one source would from the lab itself. It could be secondary transfer from Amanda to the knife. The cop in the station could have picked up some MK DNA and then transferred to the box.

But, first you don't even have evidence of RS's DNA on the door, in what amount was it there? Did Sollecito lick extensively the surface? There is no evidence of a source of any massive or anyway statistically significant size.
Then, who would this "someone" be? Did anyone pick up the clasp? How did Sollecito's DNA from a dry trace stick on the metal? And nowhere else? What are the odds for this transfer? Whereas the operator did not manage to leave not even his own profile on any item, not even on the floor?
And the knife, with 6 days of interval during which 105 samples were analyzed by the same machine and no MK trace found (this is the Novelli report)?
Amanda's secondary transfer, an isolated trace on a blade? Why not on the handle then? Why not on the things Knox touched most frequently? And after all, why should Knox come into contact with a large source of Meredith's DNA? And even if that was the case, would any better forensic technique change anything to this matter?


Are you suggesting that Raf was part of this violent murder and left no DNA in the cottage at all? Obviously the ICSI didn't find it, but does that mean it wasn't there? Did they check the door? Whose DNA was on the door knob? Did they find any DNA from the PP?

There are a plethora of ways it could have ended up there with the slack behavior of Stefanoni. Are you related to her?

Has any non-police associated or non Italian expert backed the work of Steffy.

And has any non "defense-siding" expert found anything to the contrary? Any non Vecchiotti- related expert?

Gill. Since all the experts except those directly associated with the prosecution went against Stef, I guess you would say they were "defense siding".

Why not give all, as in everything, of the lab files and all related information including collection videos to an independent expert from some non-involved country and see what they come up with? Please don't answer with some legal gobbledygook.
 
DNA is not a magic bullet

omg . . . what a list. That is a truly astonishing mashup of flat wrong + meaningless trivia.

165B, all alone, would be convincing if it had been properly collected, tested according to standards, and stored correctly AND had only RS, MK, RG, AK Dna on it.

But it wasn't, and it didn't, so it's not convincing. And everything else on that list is garbage. Who are these people???

DNA alone on 165B still wouldn't be enough for me (or on the knife, since a blood test was negative).

A violent struggle in a small blood stained room, loads of PHYSICAL evidence against only one person. No evidence of a second person in the room (especially footprints). No evidence of a "staged Break-in". Guede's history of similar acts.

Sorry, but DNA is not a magic bullet for me. My ignorant uninformed guess is that DNA must be considered very carefully, and only in the specific context of the event in question, location. The mere fact DNA is found is a first step in an argument, but not of itself conclusive.

And this is setting aside the issues of collection, storage, and lab contamination, and, the demonstrated willful deceit by a perjuring lab tech as found in this case.
 
Whoa Nelly.

All I know about Potenza's reports is as follows:

1) We have two reports, the second of which stops at, if I recall correctly, Rep. 163 (the bra clasp is 165).

2) Even if he was there for the "testing" of 165, it seems likely that he was not there for the "re-run" plate that yielded the "incriminating" 165b profile, because that plate was probably run about a week after the main testing for this batch--there's a good chance that it was done illegally.

3) Potenza's reports don't discuss quantification, and he seems unaware of the use of the Qubit Flourometer. Was there some part of the analyses that were done when Potentza wasn't there, i.e., extraction and quantification? he doesn't seem aware of the obvious malfunctioning of the q-PCR machine.

4) Was Potenza present for the complete amplification/electrophoresis process in all cases? This process takes hours, and in some cases may have occurred over night.

5) Potenza doesn't seem aware of re-runs, although these were done. Why? Were the defendants advised of these re-runs? Why weren't all of the records of the re-runs produced?

6) Why are all of the amplification dates suppressed? Would this show illegal testing outside of the notice provided to the defendants?

7) Potenza certainly was not present for the testing of the first batch (cat's blood/sex assault) samples, and does not appear to have been apprised of the testing of the Rudy Guede items. Some of the testing in the first batch was done after the arrests occurred, and therefore were possibly illegal. It seems clear that the defendants were intentionally excluded from the Rudy Guede testing, even though it obviously related to the case, so again, this was probably illegal.

Thank you for chiming in, Diocletus. Those are very good questions, boy would I like to see someone answer them!
 
planting 4-5 cells?

The reason I call him sincere is because I don't recall this contributor engaging in the hate thing. The list is useful because every item has a straightforward explanation (this is axiomatic)

There is a key to unlock this case, someone will find it soon.

ETA I do not believe there is an innocent explanation for 165B. I am satisfied it is planted, because this is a straightforward explanation. Noble cause corruption.
A short extract from wiki

Types of misconduct include false confession, false arrest, falsified evidence, false imprisonment, intimidation, police brutality, police corruption, racial profiling, surveillance abuse, and off-duty misconduct.[4] Others include:
Noble cause corruption, where the officer believes the good outcomes justify bad behavior[5]

Maybe Chris H could help with this question of "planting" on the bra clasp.

I don't believe it, because I've read that there were only 4-5 skin cells on the clasp. It was LCN, single run. And there were questions over interpretation of the data.

So, how do you only "plant" 4-5 cells?

If one were to plant, wouldn't a planter want a more reliable outcome?

I think sloppy, intentionally induced lab contamination, whether by air or equipment, in combination with Stef's cagey data interpretation and using Raf's and others target profiles as a guide o her interpretation, seem the more likely methodology for Stef's heroic effort in finding a match to Raf on the bra clasp.
 
error versus malfeasance

Carbonjam72,

The quantitation data from those runs has some problems; therefore, everything that follows is tentative. Although Raffaele's profile is very low (perhaps 100-150 pg of DNA), the relative amount of Meredith's DNA is much higher, perhaps 8-fold higher. Speaking hypothetically, perhaps Meredith's DNA was already there, and someone planted Raffaele's DNA. This might have been done by taking an object that was known to have Raffaele's DNA and rubbing it against the clasp. The problem with figuring out whether this sort of tampering took place is that the result would be indistinguishable from laboratory contamination under many circumstances.

We have discussed the question of tampering vs. contamination in these threads before, and some have said that if one is going to tamper with the evidence, that a small amount is better, because it gives one deniability. I am not certain.
 
Ah! I see you’re editorialising both defence team’s strategies, fair enough. I guess the both defence teams have been hampered by having to follow the protocols and rules of operating in an Italian court.

Do you know whether there is a mechanism for a US federal judge to effectively re-try this case in the context of the US\Italy extradition treaty; I mean can they ask for court documents etc?

It’s a simple question, yes or no would suffice; for now.

Legal experts seem to disagree, so a simple yes or no may not be possible.

I do have a relative who works in an attorney general's office in the US, I asked him what he thought would happen if an extradition request for Amanda were submitted by Italy.

His opinion was that there would somehow be found to be an endless number of technical faults with the request, such that it would never get out of the state dept and into US federal court. Basically, it would just get buried in bureaucracy.

Kind of disappointing, imo. There's a feeling that an injustice such as this should be squarely faced, and firmly, publicly reversed. Why should Knox and Sollecito have this hanging over them?

I'm of the opinion that a final confirmation by the ISC is positively unthinkable. My guess is the convictions will be annulled, and the charges dismissed, on the basis of an insufficiency of evidence -i.e., that no court convict on the available evidence. But I guess we'll see.
 
Legal experts seem to disagree, so a simple yes or no may not be possible.

I do have a relative who works in an attorney general's office in the US, I asked him what he thought would happen if an extradition request for Amanda were submitted by Italy.

His opinion was that there would somehow be found to be an endless number of technical faults with the request, such that it would never get out of the state dept and into US federal court. Basically, it would just get buried in bureaucracy.

Kind of disappointing, imo. There's a feeling that an injustice such as this should be squarely faced, and firmly, publicly reversed. Why should Knox and Sollecito have this hanging over them?

I'm of the opinion that a final confirmation by the ISC is positively unthinkable. My guess is the convictions will be annulled, and the charges dismissed, on the basis of an insufficiency of evidence -i.e., that no court convict on the available evidence. But I guess we'll see.


I'm generally skeptical of the idea of the police planting evidence. But you are naive if you think it hasn't happened occasionally. I tend to believe that if someone really wanted to frame Amanda and Raffaele, they would have provided better evidence.

That said the circumstances surrounding the collection of the bra clasp and the absurd show that they put on when they discovered the clasp makes me highly skeptical of this being honest procedure.

Why would they go back to collect more evidence? Clearly it is because their case against Raffaele had fallen apart. Then for them to make such a production of picking up the clasp and passing it back and forth and then returning it to the floor makes you go "huh"?

I don't see how that piece of evidence could be acceptable in any courtroom.
 
I'm generally skeptical of the idea of the police planting evidence. But you are naive if you think it hasn't happened occasionally. I tend to believe that if someone really wanted to frame Amanda and Raffaele, they would have provided better evidence.

That said the circumstances surrounding the collection of the bra clasp and the absurd show that they put on when they discovered the clasp makes me highly skeptical of this being honest procedure.

Why would they go back to collect more evidence? Clearly it is because their case against Raffaele had fallen apart. Then for them to make such a production of picking up the clasp and passing it back and forth and then returning it to the floor makes you go "huh"?

I don't see how that piece of evidence could be acceptable in any courtroom.

I laughed when I read about the "show they put on" in finding the clasp, that was admittedly a fine bit of Italian comedy.

I've never suggested planting evidence doesn't happen elsewhere, I just think Stef's "planting" is limited to games in the lab, and I don't think her results are honest error. I just don't think she would cross the line and commit intentional manual manipulation of the evidence, I think she has semi-planned "happy accidents", that she looks through a big enough magnifying glass until she thinks, what isn't there, looks real. So I think we're in some agreement.

What I'm noticing more and more, is how common the characteristics of this investigation and conviction I'm starting to see in news stories.

There was a Dutch young man in New york, who recently got marathon grilled into admitting to child molestation at his day care job. His accuser had a history of making claims against her co-workers, and shot ambiguous cell phone video of the claims in question that were highly open to interpretation.

There were a pair of NYC detectives, one of whom was famous for getting "confessions" from defendants, many in strikingly similar language. He was also known to have planted at least one gun, and used a homeless prostitute in 4 cases - and she became known as "Lou's Goto witness".

Forced confessions, planted evidence, tramp witnesses, and recurring bad/rogue cops/prosecutors who keep having these kinds of problems.

In the NYC case, something like 50 of the Detectives convictions are under investigation, and a few have resulted in people being released from jail, after decades in prison. The DA Hynes was originally in charge of a commission that was investigating his won convictions, but Hynes was vited out of office and a new DA has taken over. Haven't heard too much about it since then.

Just saying the more I learn about this case, the more I see its not at all unique. It's a long term widespread problem, internationally.
 
Legal experts seem to disagree, so a simple yes or no may not be possible.
I do have a relative who works in an attorney general's office in the US, I asked him what he thought would happen if an extradition request for Amanda were submitted by Italy. His opinion was that there would somehow be found to be an endless number of technical faults with the request, such that it would never get out of the state dept and into US federal court. Basically, it would just get buried in bureaucracy.
Kind of disappointing, imo. There's a feeling that an injustice such as this should be squarely faced, and firmly, publicly reversed. Why should Knox and Sollecito have this hanging over them?

I'm of the opinion that a final confirmation by the ISC is positively unthinkable. My guess is the convictions will be annulled, and the charges dismissed, on the basis of an insufficiency of evidence -i.e., that no court convict on the available evidence. But I guess we'll see.

The reason why this sort of thing is done is for saving face on all sides.
It is also why the hamfisted way that Wikileaks was done is wrong.
Most of the stuff, everybody in power knows. The point is that they can turn a blind eye towards it.
 
I laughed when I read about the "show they put on" in finding the clasp, that was admittedly a fine bit of Italian comedy.

I've never suggested planting evidence doesn't happen elsewhere, I just think Stef's "planting" is limited to games in the lab, and I don't think her results are honest error. I just don't think she would cross the line and commit intentional manual manipulation of the evidence, I think she has semi-planned "happy accidents", that she looks through a big enough magnifying glass until she thinks, what isn't there, looks real. So I think we're in some agreement.

What I'm noticing more and more, is how common the characteristics of this investigation and conviction I'm starting to see in news stories.

There was a Dutch young man in New york, who recently got marathon grilled into admitting to child molestation at his day care job. His accuser had a history of making claims against her co-workers, and shot ambiguous cell phone video of the claims in question that were highly open to interpretation.

There were a pair of NYC detectives, one of whom was famous for getting "confessions" from defendants, many in strikingly similar language. He was also known to have planted at least one gun, and used a homeless prostitute in 4 cases - and she became known as "Lou's Goto witness".

Forced confessions, planted evidence, tramp witnesses, and recurring bad/rogue cops/prosecutors who keep having these kinds of problems.

In the NYC case, something like 50 of the Detectives convictions are under investigation, and a few have resulted in people being released from jail, after decades in prison. The DA Hynes was originally in charge of a commission that was investigating his won convictions, but Hynes was vited out of office and a new DA has taken over. Haven't heard too much about it since then.

Just saying the more I learn about this case, the more I see its not at all unique. It's a long term widespread problem, internationally.

I agree with you. I really don't know if it was corruption or contamination. I just don't trust it for a multitude of reasons. I see Stefanoni looking at her job as doing whatever is necessary to procure convictions. I think she sees this as the key to advancement, promotion and raises. That the system sees her value as in support of the prosecution as opposed to supporting justice.
 
Carbonjam72,

The quantitation data from those runs has some problems; therefore, everything that follows is tentative. Although Raffaele's profile is very low (perhaps 100-150 pg of DNA), the relative amount of Meredith's DNA is much higher, perhaps 8-fold higher. Speaking hypothetically, perhaps Meredith's DNA was already there, and someone planted Raffaele's DNA. This might have been done by taking an object that was known to have Raffaele's DNA and rubbing it against the clasp. The problem with figuring out whether this sort of tampering took place is that the result would be indistinguishable from laboratory contamination under many circumstances.

We have discussed the question of tampering vs. contamination in these threads before, and some have said that if one is going to tamper with the evidence, that a small amount is better, because it gives one deniability. I am not certain.

It's pretty clear to me that the qPCR machine was malfunctioning at the time the quantification on the bra clasp was done. So, that quantification of the bra clasp is about as useful as the weight you get from a broken scale.
 
relative versus absolute amounts

It's pretty clear to me that the qPCR machine was malfunctioning at the time the quantification on the bra clasp was done. So, that quantification of the bra clasp is about as useful as the weight you get from a broken scale.
Diocletus,

I agree, although I think we can still be confident that Meredith's profile is dominant in the egram on the basis of peak heights, meaning that the relative ratio for the two is about eightfold.
 
Diocletus,

I agree, although I think we can still be confident that Meredith's profile is dominant in the egram on the basis of peak heights, meaning that the relative ratio for the two is about eightfold.
Chris, if we accept Raffaele never touched the clasp, there might be four possibilities
1. Accidental contamination, R dna on clasp.
2. Deliberate contamination, R dna on clasp.
3. R dna not on clasp, accidental machine contamination.
4. R dna not on clasp, deliberate machine contamination.

Is this right, and are there other possibilities?
Can any of these be ruled out?
 
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